The Punter 
/ Steven Rawlings / 07 February 2012 / Leave a Comment 
John Mallinger – The Punter’s idea of the best value this week
“Mallinger already has plenty of form at Pebble. He finished third in each of his first two attempts in this event in 2007 and 2008 and he won the Callaway Golf Pebble Beach Invitational here in 2010.”
Steve runs the rule over this week's US PGA Tour event, what's it going to take to win at Pebble?
Tournament
The AT & T Pebble Beach National is a Pro-am staged over three courses. This will be the 71st staging.
Venue
Pebble Beach Golf Links, Pebble Beach, California
Course Details
Pebble Beach (host course), par 72, 6816 yards, stroke average in 2011 - 72.16
Spyglass Hill par 72, 6858 yards, stroke average in 2011 - 72.43
Monterey Peninsula, par 70, 6838 yards, stroke average in 2011 - 69.84
The field will play all three courses over the first three days before the final round will played out at Pebble. Monterey played the easiest of the three last year and that could be the place to bag a really low score.
Useful Sites
Weather
Course Guides
Official Event Site
TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports all four days, 8.00pm on Thursday and Friday and 6.00pm on Saturday and Sunday.
Last Five Winners
2011 - D.A Points -15
2010 - Dustin Johnson -16
2009 - Dustin Johnson -15 (54 holes)
2008 - Steve Lowery -10 (playoff)
2007 - Phil Mickelson -20
Typical Winner
With rounds taking that bit longer and with the need to interact with your amateur partner, the experienced and patient pros tend to prosper. Although big hitters Dustin Johnson and Phil Mickelson have won four of the last seven renewals, length isn't a prerequisite. You need a bit of luck with the weather - Spyglass is tree-lined and largely protected from the wind so anyone drawn there on a day that the wind howls at the two coastal tracks will have a considerable advantage. That said, the forecast this year suggests light winds and fine weather. One quirky stat of note - four of the last five winners was leading after day one.
Market leaders
Tiger Woods makes his 2012 PGA Tour debut and he heads the market at [6.6]. Paul Krishnamurty has looked at his prospects and I have to agree with him, he doesn't look like a value play at his current price.
At [22.0], Dustin Johnson will have his followers. He won back-to-back here in 2009 and 2010 but he was a long way off the pace last year, failing to break 70, finishing in a tie for 55th and you have to wonder how much of a scar was left after his infamous US Open collapse here in 2010. Given he's been pretty poor so far this term too, I'm happy to leave him alone.
The market can't split the next four, with Phil Mickelson, Nick Watney, Hunter Mahan and Rickie Fowler all trading at [26.0].
Selections
It takes a bit of a leap of faith to side with Mickelson after his first two performances this year but that's precisely what I've done. Although, on close inspection of last week's tied 26th in Phoenix there are grounds for optimism. He ranked 6th for Scrambling and 13th for putting so his short game could just be getting there and besides, Lefty has often found form from nowhere. He'd missed the cut in Phoenix the week before he won here in 2007. He'll enjoy the benign conditions and if he can play Monterey a bit better than he did last year (shot 71) he might just surprise a few people.
John Mallinger was the first player I backed this week. He sat out last week's event and missed the cut at the Farmers Insurance the week before, but he could well have been suffering from a bit of a hangover following his near miss at the Humana Challenge, where he finished in a tie for second. Heralding from California, he already has plenty of form at Pebble. He finished third in each of his first two attempts in this event in 2007 and 2008 and he won the Callaway Golf Pebble Beach Invitational here in 2010. Kiss of death alert, he was my idea of the best value in the field.
It's been a long, long time since I last put any money on Jeff Maggert but he's injury-free and in fine form so far this season. He's a duel runner-up of the event (1994 and 2004) and he quite obviously ticks the experienced pro box.
Last up is Paul's Find Me A 100 Winner, Daniel Chopra, who has already caused a big stir this week, making two aces in practice yesterday.
AT & T Pebble Beach National Selections:
Phil Mickelson @ [26.0]
John Mallinger @ an average of [90.0]
Jeff Maggert @ [130.0]
Daniel Chopra @ [260.0]
I'll be back on Thursday or Friday with the In-Play Blog.
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