/ Paul Krishnamurty / 31 January 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Jason Day at 37-1? It would be rude not to!
"Unlike Abu Dhabi, which played tougher than usual and rewarded accuracy over power, Doha GC has a reputation for favouring the biggest hitters. Day is more than simply a bomber, but is certainly seen to best effect on such open layouts."
Beware early-season judgements and punish over-reacting layers is Paul Krishnamurty's message this week, noting huge prices available on two huge talents - Jason Day and Gary Woodland - either side of the Atlantic
One feature of the new golf order, where both tours boast unprecedented strength in depth, is a market that repeatedly over-reacts to the most recent result. The 2012 season is only three weeks old. Most top players have played only once and could be forgiven for using it as an opportunity to shake off any winter rust. Hardly a time, then, to be drawing strong conclusions or writing people off. Yet in both of this week's events, there is at least one example of a top-class player available at vastly inflated odds compared to their seasonal debut.
First, Jason Day in the Qatar Masters. Here is a player widely tipped to sweep all before him. He was runner-up on both his Masters and US Open debuts last year - an unprecedented achievement in majors that generally reward experience. He's ranked tenth in the world already, placing him third best in this company. Before last week's Abu Dhabi Championship, against a stronger line-up, he was amongst the leading handful in the betting. Yet as a consequence of missing one cut, Day is relegated to 11th place in the betting at [38.0], nearly four times the odds of the favourite.
Such a reaction makes even less sense given the nature of this course, which should be ideal. Unlike Abu Dhabi, which played tougher than usual and rewarded accuracy over power, Doha GC has a reputation for favouring the biggest hitters. It is no coincidence that huge, wild-hitting Alvaro Quiros has form figures of 2/2/1 here. Day is more than simply a bomber, but is certainly seen to best effect on such open layouts. Historically, the two key stats here have been driving distance and putting average, and according to the excellent course compatibility stats at www.tour-tips.com, Jason ranks second and fourth in those categories.
It's a similar story in the US, where Gary Woodland is enormous at [60.0] to win the Waste Management Phoenix Open.
Again, we have a vast bank of course form to study at Scottsdale, which suggest Gary has the credentials to thrive. Scottsdale isn't so much of a big-hitters track, but bombers have often taken it apart. For instance JB Holmes, who usually reserves his best for courses that reward his power game, has won this title twice. A further clue is birdie average, as Scottsdale is the type of risk-reward layout where frequent birdies are essential to offset the inevitable bogies. Year in, year out, the leaderboard reflects those stats.
Woodland scores very well on both counts, ranking fifth for driving distance amongst this lot, and 13th for birdies over the past 12 months. More significant than any performance stats, however, is the fact Woodland finished fifth here last year, on one of his earliest PGA Tour starts. On that basis, Scottsdale is more suitable than the Hawaii track where he flopped first time out, or the quirky Torrey Pines, where he failed last week for the second year running.
Gary really improved as that rookie season wore on, missing only one cut after May, registering top-25s in all four majors, winning his maiden title and landing the World Cup alongside Matt Kuchar. Both myself and Dan Geraghty have marked him as one of the players to follow in 2012. Keep the faith. Odds like this week's [60.0] will soon be a thing of the past.
Recommended Bets
Qatar Masters
Back Jason Day to win @ [38.0]
Back Jason Day for top-five finish @ [9.0]
Waste Management Phoenix Open
Back Gary Woodland to win @ [60.0]
Back Gary Woodland for top-five finish @ [11.0]
It's going to be a blustery week in Qatar, so who has the best draw? And what does it take to win around Doha? Read Steve's event preview here......
Beware early-season judgements and punish over-reacting layers is Paul Krishnamurty's message this week, noting huge prices available on two huge talents - Jason Day and Gary Woodland - either side of the Atlantic...
Ignore Peter Hanson's final round collapse in Abu Dhabi says Mike Norman, the Swede is still playing well and is one of this week's Form Guide's three suggested players....
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