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/ Timeform / 04 November 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Who will win this year's Filly & Mare Turf?
"Stacelita, the class mare in the race, has the gears to get herself out of trouble if things get tactical and rates a good win bet."
Midday and Sarafina may well have fought out the finish if standing their ground but instead have another shot at the colts in the Turf on Saturday, and whilst that admittedly takes something away from the Filly & Mare Turf (22:50 GMT), there are still a number of Grade 1 winners set to line up...
Dubawi Heights should be familiar to race fans on both sides of the Atlantic. She finished third in the Lowther as a 2-y-o in Britain for Simon Callaghan and has done very well for the same trainer in the States this year, winning two Grade 1s including the Yellow Ribbon at Santa Anita last time, where she beat Cozi Rosie. Dubawi Heights was comfortably beaten by Stacelita in the Beverly D. at Arlington in between those wins, however, so chances are she's playing for a place again.
Stacelita was a high-class mare in France for Jean-Claude Rouget, winning a hat-trick of Group 1s in her 3-y-o campaign, and has already twice tasted success at the highest level since moving to the States earlier this year, racking up easy wins for Chad Brown in the Beverly D. at Arlington and the Flower Bowl Invitational at Belmont. Stacelita is the class act in the field, has an excellent turn of foot which will stand her in good stead should things become tactical and is clearly the one to beat.
Harmonious progressed quickly in 2010, winning four races including the American Oaks at Hollywood and Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup at Keeneland, but only tenth behind Shared Account in the Filly & Mare Turf. Not quite so good this year, for all she's been in the frame on each start, most recently when third to Dubawi Heights in the Yellow Ribbon Stakes at Santa Anita. Conditions will suit and will probably stay, but unlikely to prove up to the task.
Cambina landed a couple of wins in lowly company as a juvenile in Ireland for Tommy Stack and much improved in the States this year, dead-heating in the Grade 1 American Oaks at Hollywood Park and fifth to Dubawi Heights in the Yellow Ribbon at Santa Anita. Should stay the longer trip judged on pedigree, but plenty to find with the principals.
Nahrain gave Roger Varian his first ever Group 1 win as a trainer when taking the Prix de l'Opera at Longchamp (beat reopposing Announce by a nose), taking her own record to four from four. Plenty of stamina on the dam's side of her pedigree, so step up in trip could well unlock further improvement, and very much one to consider, still completely unexposed.
Announce has proven consistent at home in France this year and won Group 1 Prix Jean Romanet at Deauville in August, but far more exposed than Nahrain, who beat her in the Prix de l'Opera at Longchamp on Arc day and probably playing for a place again at best, for all owner Khalid Abdulla has faith in her as replacement for Midday who goes for the Turf.
Aruna is an ex-French filly who now hails from the stable of Graham Motion, who caused an upset in the Filly & Mare Turf in 2010 when Shared Account beat Midday. Aruna is herself a Grade 1 winner, too, having taken the Spinster Stakes at Keeneland in October, but longer trip is an unknown (stays 9f) and more on her plate in this company.
Perfect Shirl was a three-time winner in 2010 but yet to score this year, producing best efforts when third in Grade 3 Matchmaker Stakes at Monmouth on fourth outing and when second in Grade 2 Canadian Stakes at Woodbine. Well held at 11f and looks up against it.
Shared Account was a shock Filly & Mare Turf winner at Churchill Downs in 2010, when defeating Midday in what was a messy renewal, but only fourth and sixth in two runs this year (four months apart) and it would be an even bigger surprise were she to double up.
Distorted Legacy has been much improved this year, winning allowance race and non-graded event at Belmont, and produced best effort when two lengths second to Stacelita in Flower Bowl Invitational on same course last time. Was a big price at Belmont last time, however, and no reason to think she can turn form around with Stacelita.
Misty For Me won the Irish 1000 Guineas in the spring and bounced back from failing to stay in the Oaks at Epsom when smashing Midday by six lengths in the Pretty Polly at the Curragh. Only been seen once since, when a disappointing third in the Matron at Leopardstown, but her best form gives her every chance and eleven furlongs at Churchill Downs should be within her compass. Could well give trainer Aidan O'Brien his first Filly & Mare Turf win.
Timeform 1-2-3
1. Stacelita
2. Misty For Me
3. Dubawi Heights
Timeform Verdict: This has the potential to be muddling, much as it was when Shared Account caused an upset to beat Midday on the same track last year, but Stacelita, the class mare in the race, has the gears to get herself out of trouble if things get tactical and rates a good win bet. Ex-French Stacelita's biggest threat could come from the raiding European party, led by O'Brien's Misty For Me, while Dubawi Heights looks the most threatening of the rest.
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