Match Previews 
/ Will Greenwood / 09 March 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Will doesn't fancy facing this man - but is he playing in his best position?
"The match in Cardiff is probably the pick of the round four games. It should be a cracker as two sides heading in the right direction come face to face."
Last time out Will Greenwood rewarded backers by landing a 14/1 treble - can he pull off the same trick in round four?
Readers of this column know two things about me: I landed a 14/1 treble in round three and I have a lot of love for Italy. Here's where those two facts combine.
Italy are a massive [16.0] to beat France but they have performed admirably in their two games at home, causing problems for Ireland and Wales. I was gutted when Ronan O'Gara slotted that drop goal in round one to deny the Italian's a deserved victory. They possess excellent players and I've been impressed by Alberto Sgarbi as well as Sergio Parisse and Mirco Bergamasco. The latter pair play their club rugby in France so they know all about Saturday's opposition and will work hard to spread belief amongst the squad.
The French would need to slip-up in pursuit of a big win and everything would have to fall just right for the Italians.
But - and you knew there was a but coming - one of the golden rules of gambling is that in the event of a big win, you should not, repeat not, then go out and blow the winnings on a risky wager. I'd be delighted to see the look on the Italy players' faces when they finally win a big game. I hope that happens this Saturday but in the end the French will have too much and I have to back them to win a tight contest.
The match in Cardiff is probably the pick of the round four games. It should be a cracker as two sides heading in the right direction come face to face.
Both Wales and Ireland are at fascinating junctures, both within a gnat's whisker of being very good teams. The Welsh have shown glimpses of brilliance in their last two matches while the Irish are attempting to rediscover the fluidity that landed them the Grand Slam two years ago.
Ireland have named an unchanged side and I'm delighted to see Paul O'Connell getting back to his brilliant best. For Wales, the cavalry has arrived, with Jonathan Davies and Leigh Halfpenny set to start as James Hook moves to fly-half. Hook is a fantastic player but I actually prefer to see him in the centre. As a former number 12, I wouldn't fancy playing against him.
This one really is very close to call. That's reflected in the odds, with home advantage making Wales [1.94] favourites and Ireland at [2.12]. If ever there was a chance of landing the draw [23.0] this could be it so you might consider getting a fiver on. Over all, I think the Millenium crowd will give Wales the extra advantage to get over the line, so I'm backing the home side to win by less than 12.5 points at [2.22].
Will Greenwood's Six Nations Treble:
Back England to beat Scotland by over 12.5 points @ [1.34].
Back France to beat Italy by under 12.5 points @ [2.52]
Back Wales to beat Ireland by under 12.5 points @ [2.22]
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Last time out Will Greenwood rewarded backers by landing a 14/1 treble - can he pull off the same trick in round four?...
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