Match Previews
/ Will Greenwood / 09 March 2011 / Leave a Comment
Andy Robinson is unlikely to have much to smile about on Saturday
"Against Scotland, England's biggest obstacle to success is themselves, but I believe they can make the most of this Grand Slam opportunity."
Will explains why he anticipates a miserable return to Twickenham for Andy Robinson and why opponents around the world fear this England team.
If Scotland win at Twickenham this Sunday they will be the biggest party poopers in Six Nations history. England fans want to see their team set up a Grand Slam decider in Dublin next week and Johnno's men will be gutted if they blow their chances here.
The odds on an England Grand Slam narrowed to [1.63] after their round three win against France and teams all over the world now see England as a formidable force. The Southern Hemisphere sides are watching and they certainly don't want to see England going to the World Cup with a Slam under their belts.
I don't fancy Scotland's chances of getting anything against England. At [13.0], Betfair punters agree. Scotland improved in their narrow defeat to Ireland but they showed again that they struggle to play well for 80 minutes. And they haven't won at Twickenham since 1983.
If you had to write a textbook on how not to start a rugby match, this Scotland side would offer a perfect case study. They've conceded a try in the first ten minutes in seven of their last nine matches. That's astonishing and explains why 0-10 Minutes is [1.8] favourite in the 1st Try Odds market. Well worth a small wager based on those stats.
Before I get accused of being too negative about the Scots, I should say that there is plenty that I like about them. Andy Robinson is a terrific coach and he has unearthed some quality talent. Everybody knows how good Scotland's back row is but I also feel that, with his peerless kicking precision, Dan Parks is a seriously under-rated fly-half. They need to prove that they can perform consistently, rather than playing well for 40 minutes before folding.
England will win on Saturday and the only question is by how much. At times they were second best against France but the ability to play badly and prevail often defines great teams. Against Scotland, England's biggest obstacle to success is themselves, but I believe they can make the most of this Grand Slam opportunity.
England will win comfortably. The match takes place on Sunday so, with no break next week, there's only six days before that potential Slam decider in Dublin. For that reason, if the Red Rose establish an unassailable lead, I expect Johnno to make a slew of second half changes. That might disrupt continuity but I doubt it and I'm confident backing England to win by over 12.5 points at [1.34].
Recommended bet:
Back England to win by over 12.5 @ [1.34].
Back 0-10 Minutes @ [1.8] in 1st Try Odds.
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