


Exciting winger Maxime Nedard will relish playing against Italy
"It may take France a while to break Italy down but tries should come in the second half as gaps begin to appear in the home side's defence."
France have an excellent record in the Italian capital but could the home side pull off a shock this Saturday? Stuart Jones selects the best bets.
History suggests that France should have few problems putting defeat to England behind them in Rome this Saturday. The French cruised to a 46-20 victory over Italy last year in Paris, but their record in the Eternal City is even more impressive, with victories by 42, 36 and 43 points in recent years.
While the Italians have proved capable of competing with the likes of Scotland and Wales, they rarely manage to stop France from running up a big score. While we all know that records are there to be broken, it will take a huge turnaround in form to put the Italians in with a chance.
The problem for Italy is that they simply cannot handle any side that attacks them efficiently in the wide areas. Time and again their forwards put in a solid display in the middle of the pitch, but as soon as the game breaks down they start to unravel. Barring superstar captain Sergio Parisse, the forwards are uncomfortable outside of their basic remit of hitting scrums, line-outs and rucks. This in turn puts more pressure on a backline lacking individual quality and, with Luciano Orquera back in the number ten slot, the French will relish the prospect of targeting such a sucpect defender.
The French were stifled by a muscular and organised defence in the last round against a very effective, if not particularly explosive, England side. They have often struggled against the sheer size and brute force of England, but nearly always come back to run up big scores against weaker sides. That's what I expect to happen here.
The French backline, including the mercurial talents of Maxime Medard and Vincent Clerc, plus the solidity of Aurelien Rougerie and Yannick Jauzion, should run amok against their Italian counterparts. With a tight-five that will easily be a match for the Italian's strongest area, and a back-row that has a good mix of brute force and intelligence, I expect the French to provide plenty of ball for their excellent decision-makers at nine and ten. It may take a while for them to wear Italy down, but tries should come in the second half as gaps begin to appear in the Italian defence.
Expect to see plenty of hard work by the Italians and Parisse bumping off a few tacklers at times, but it won't be enough in the end. Pick France -16.5 and top up with a lay of Italy on the +28.5 in case they capitulate towards the end.
Recommnded bets:
Back France -16.5 @ [2.1]
Lay Italy +28.5 @ [1.33]
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