Champions League 
/ Matthew Walton / 07 March 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Andryi Arshavin's winner for Arsenal in the first leg could prove to be priceless
"In the past five seasons we’ve seen 14 teams win the first leg of their R16 ties when playing at home. And of those 14 teams, no fewer than 11 made it through into the next round. That’s a very noticeable 78%, which would equate to odds of [1.28] - and Arsenal, as we know, trade at what appears at first glance, at least according to this data, a massive [3.7]."
It may sound obvious but the stats say taking a lead into the second leg of a Champions League tie gives you a fantastic chance of progressing. Which is great news for the likes of Arsenal and Shakhtar, says Matthew Walton.
There have been some very interesting moves in the 'to qualify' market after the first leg of this season's R16 matches. None more so than those relating to the four remaining English clubs.
Chelsea are now an unbackable [1.01] from [1.16] given their 2-0 win over FC Copenhagen whilst, somewhat bizarrely, Manchester United have drifted from [1.27] to [1.38] on the back of their 0-0 draw in Marseille (although the Reds' worrying domestic form probably accounts for much of their general unease in the market).
Both these teams have the opportunity to turn these 'professional' first leg results into a QF place when their ties are settled next week - when we'll discuss them both in more detail.
This week our attention is turned to the North London duo, Arsenal and Spurs, who arguably produced the results of the round in their respective first leg encounters. The Gunners 2-1 victory over Barcelona has seen their 'to qualify' price cut from [4.6] into [3.7] whilst Spurs, who recorded a remarkable 1-0 win at the San Siro two weeks ago, are just [1.33] from [2.38] to finish off AC Milan at White Hart Lane.
And the statistics clearly suggest both clubs, Spurs and Arsenal, have a great chance of turning their first leg advantages into a place in the last eight.
Spurs are the more obvious case - and so the shorter price - because after winning their away leg in Italy, Harry Redknapp's team now only need a draw, at home, to progress.
Looking back through recent records, analysing a five season period starting with the 2005/06 competition, we find 10 sides which have won the first leg, away from home, in a R16 tie. Of these, all 10 went on to win the tie. That's right, a 100% success rate.
In fact, the second leg 90-minute stats (for the home side) have been P10 W7 D2 L1 which also makes the price for a Spurs win [2.30] look more than a little generous.
As for Arsenal, history tells us that getting a result at home to Barcelona is one thing ... getting a result in the Nou Camp is quite another. Some 12 months ago Arsene Wenger's men drew 2-2 with the Catalans at the Emirates only for Lionel Messi to single-handedly destroy the Londoners as Barca romped to an emphatic 4-1 win in the second leg.
But, and there is a but, the formbook quite clearly illustrates the fact Arsenal can travel to Spain with realistic hopes of making the QF's.
In the past five seasons we've seen 14 teams win the first leg of their R16 ties when playing at home. And of those 14 teams, no fewer than 11 made it through into the next round. That's a very noticeable 78%, which would equate to odds of [1.28] - and Arsenal, as we know, trade at what appears at first glance, at least according to this data, a massive [3.7].
Value grounds alone dictate we must consider the Gunners to progress. Admittedly such an opinion must be tempered by some very vivid, and very recent, head-to-head form (the footballing lesson handed out to the English club a year ago will live long in the memory). However, even accounting for that, and the fact these 14 teams have some very mixed away results over the years (W4 D3 L7), the big price appears more than a little dismissive of Arsenal's statistical chances of qualifying.
The week's other two ties see Shakhtar Donetsk aiming to secure their place in the next round after a fine 3-2 win away to Roma whilst Schalke aim to capitalise on their 1-1 draw away to Valencia.
After such a good result in Italy, the Russian side have shortened into [1.13] - perfectly understandable given this is the identical scenario to the Spurs tie.
And as for the German outfit, Schalke have been backed into [1.79] favouritism in the 'to qualify' market which is similarly easy to justify. In recent seasons, teams which draw the first leg away from home have an overall record of 12:4 in terms of going through - a fact which also makes them a solid betting option.
Recommended Bets
Spurs to beat AC Milan in 90 minutes [2.30]
Arsenal to qualify [3.7]
Schalke to qualify [1.79]
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