ODI Betting: Jayawardene can steer Sri Lanka to the finals

ODI preview / Andrew Hughes / 01 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Jayawardene can lead the way to the finals

"Sri Lanka have already beaten Australia twice and they are quite capable of doing so again, particularly given that the Aussies do not need to win in Melbourne."

There's a simple equation for Sri Lanka in Melbourne: win the game to reach the finals and Andrew Hughes thinks they can do it.

March 2, Australia v Sri Lanka, Melbourne, Live on Sky Sports 1, 03:20 GMT

Team News
Australia's main selection dilemma is whether to risk captain Michael Clarke as he recovers from a hamstring injury. The signs are that he will be fit, but selectors may decide to give him an extra couple of days rehabilitation. Quick bowler James Pattinson is back in the squad and should come into the side for Ryan Harris.

Sri Lanka had been going well in this competition until their shock defeat by India on Tuesday, so they will not want to change things too much. They will though have to replace the injured Fervez Maharoof and are likely to go with another seam bowler such as Dhammika Prasad rather than a second spinner.

Venue and Conditions
The MCG surface should offer something for quick bowlers prepared to bend their backs but, based on what we saw in the opening game at the venue when Australia raced to 216 in 32 overs, this will be a batting-friendly pitch, with the true bounce enabling the more expansive strokeplayers to express themselves. There will be some cloud around on Friday, but no rain is forecast.

Match Odds
Tuesday's result has turned this final game from a gentle formality to a nail-biting eliminator. Sri Lanka's inability to defend a total of 320 against India will also have dented their confidence. The way that Virat Kohli was able to score at will from the bowling of Lasith Malinga was particularly worrying and both Mahela Jayawardene's use of the Powerplays and his bowling changes have been criticised

But I don't think punters should overreact on the basis of one result. Sri Lanka have played well throughout this tournament and it is in the nature of limited overs cricket that one brilliant performance like Kohli's can decide a game. Sri Lanka have already beaten Australia twice and they are quite capable of doing so again, particularly given that the Aussies do not need to win in Melbourne. At odds of [2.6] I'll be backing the wily Jayawardene to take his team to the finals.

Top Australian Batsman
Shane Watson struggled in his brief innings last Sunday and there have to be doubts over whether Australia will risk their captain for this game, so there aren't too many options in this market. David Hussey scored another half-century, but now that he finally seems to have discovered his touch, the tentative selection is David Warner, who should be suited by the MCG pitch and can be backed at [4.75] or better.

Top Sri Lankan BatsmanI
t was good news for Sri Lanka that Kumar Sangakkara finally got amongst the runs on Tuesday and he can be backed at [4.5] but the men to rely on in this market are the openers. Tillakaratne Dilshan hit a stunning 160 against India, but I'll be siding with Jayawardene. I'd expect him to respond to criticism of his captaincy with a solid batting performance and he is worth backing at [4.5] or better.

Featured Market
With a good batting surface expected at the MCG and some big hitters like Warner and Dilshan in form, the scene is set for plenty of runs. Backing 'Over 82.5' in the Highest Individual Score market at [2.0] is the way to go.

Recommend Bet
Back Sri Lanka to beat Australia at 2.6

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Champion Bumper: History gives a steer on how to tackle the race

Ante-post / Simon Rowlands / 22 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Village Vic (right) at Newbury

"...favour experience over potential, achievement over promise, and do not be put off by a horse having suffered one, or possibly two, defeats."

It is [10.0] the field ante-post in the Champion Bumper, but recent contests show that certain types of horses tend to do well and/or be underbet. Simon Rowlands took the journey from ignorance to enlightenment...

I start this blog with an admission: while I have managed to watch most of the major jumps races of this season, my day (or should that be "night"?) job has meant that I am more familiar with the runners at Beulah Park and Tampa Bay Downs than with much of what has been going on in bumpers in Britain and Ireland of late.

As my task this week consists of blogging about the Cheltenham Champion Bumper market, I hope you will understand that I felt the need to resort to some help!

So, as a starting point, I looked at all runners in the race since 2000 - 238 of them in total - and tried to establish which types of horses have performed well and badly, and which horses have tended to be overbet and underbet. The results were encouraging enough to prompt me to part with some hard-earned cash. Let's see if you agree.

As mentioned many times previously, simple win-loss strike-rates are too crude a measure. For a start, they do not allow for variations in opportunity as defined by field size, and they do not distinguish between an abject loss and a heroic defeat.

Instead, I used percentage of rivals beaten (%RB) and the profit/loss to an each-way stake at starting price in which the stake is varied according to price (the longer the odds, the less is staked).

There was not a lot to report by age-group (four-year-olds were slightly below par in terms of %RB but were less overbet than five- and six-year-olds) or by the number of previous wins, but there was a much clearer picture in terms of the profitability, or otherwise, by number of runs.

There was not a lot in it judged by %RB, but horses with three or (ideally) four runs to their names have been undervalued by the market. Horses that had raced just once - of which there were 82 cases - had been notably bad betting propositions.

In a related find, unbeaten horses (which many once-raced individuals were) had returned a large loss, while horses who had won between 50% and 75% of their races had done a good deal better than market expectation.

Perhaps most tellingly of all, a high pre-race Timeform rating - defined as 118 or more - not only saw 67.7%RB (where 50% would be par) but showed a profit against starting price through the staking suggested.

What may gain less favour from my employers is that I can also point out that horses with a 'p' or 'P' symbol on their Timeform rating (signifying the likelihood of more than normal or considerable improvement) fared better than par in terms of %RB but much worse in terms of profitability. Horses with obvious potential tend to be overbet, in other words.

A pattern seems to be emerging, which I would summarise thus: favour experience over potential, achievement over promise, and do not be put off by a horse having suffered one, or possibly two, defeats.

Running through the ante-post market on Betfair, three horses made the most appeal by these criteria.

Moscow Mannon just about heads the market after winning the last three of his four races and earning a Timeform rating of 119+. In his last two runs he has given weight and impressive beatings to fairly useful rivals.

Clonbanan Lad has won both his races but has achieved quite a bit more in doing so than other unraced horses at shorter odds. His rating of 122+ would have been good enough to win three or possibly four of the last 10 runnings of the Cheltenham Bumper.

Village Vic might well be unbeaten were it not for inexperience which saw him go down by just a short head to Shutthefrontdoor at Newbury last time (had run away with Chepstow bumper on only other start) and could yet improve on his 118 rating.

Moscow Mannon is marginally my preferred, but all three are worth having on your side in a race which can be one of the most difficult to pin down at the entire Festival.

Recommendations: 2 pts win Moscow Mannon at [10.0]; 1 pt win Clonbanan lad at [21.0], 1 pt win Village Vic at [21.0].

There's Grade 2 action aplenty in Ireland this weekend, with the Winning Fair Juvenile Hurdle kicking off proceedings at Fairyhouse on Saturday..........

With a number of horses throwing their names into the ring at the weekend, Timeform's Adam Brookes assesses the Champion Hurdle picture and provides a recommended bet for the two-mile showpiece on March 13......

Sizing Europe will go to Cheltenham with a good chance, but there could be one to topple him in his bid to win at the Festival for the third year in a row. Simon Rowlands reports......

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