Grand National Runners: Why Synchronised will shorten this week - but shouldn't

Ante-Post Betting / Tony Calvin / 09 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Synchronised on his way to Gold Cup glory

"His tendency to make mistakes and look beaten in his races before powering through late on means that he is highly likely to trade bigger in-running on Betfair soon after the off. And, increasingly, a horse’s style of running affects its pre-race price - and punters’ betting habits."

Gold Cup winner Synchronised will have that man Tony McCoy on board in the Grand National, is trained by Jonjo O'Neill and owned by JP McManus. A deadly trio indeed. And whereas his price might shorten with the bookies before the off, it probably won't on Betfair.

There is little doubt that any horse ridden by Tony McCoy, trained by Jonjo O'Neill and owned by JP McManus is sure to go off at an artificially short price in the Grand National.

You only have to look at their runners in recent seasons for examples.

Don't Push It went off as 10-1 joint-favourite when winning in 2010 and at 9-1 last year, while Butler's Cabin was 7-1 market leader in 2009 and 10-1 the year before. Clan Royal went off as 5-1 joint favourite with Hedgehunter in 2006, having started as 10-1 co-favourite in 2004 and 9-1 in 2005.

This is no coincidence.

Simply put, the off-course bookmakers are not going to let any horse with such famously recognisable colours and connections go off at a remotely generous price.

Remember, Don't Push It returned a Betfair SP of 19.18 when winning in 2010, as opposed to the industry SP of 10-1. The Betfair market suggests that Don't Push It wasn't shortened from 20-1 to 10-1 in the minutes leading up to the off purely because of weight of money. Indeed, the 2010 National book came in at 155 per cent.

What is ironic is that the horse representing the trio this year arguably deserves to be a shorter price than all of the above runners.

After all, Synchronised won the Gold Cup last month, is well-handicapped on that, and is a Welsh National and Midlands Grand National winner, so has already proved he stays extreme distances and is now proven on any ground.

So why shouldn't Synchronised, currently around 9-1 on Betfair, go off shorter than 5-1 Clan Royal in 2006?

Betfair spokesman Tony Calvin explained: "If any horse of JP, Jonjo and AP's in recent years deserves to go off such a short price favourite, it is surely Synchronised.

"But there is good reason to think that the Gold Cup hero won't, or shouldn't, shorten a great deal from his current price of 9-1 - on Betfair at least. Namely, his style of running.

"His tendency to make mistakes and look beaten in his races before powering through late on means that he is highly likely to trade bigger in-running on Betfair soon after the off. And, increasingly, a horse's style of running affects its pre-race price - and punters' betting habits.

"So even those who fancy the horse may sit and wait before looking to pounce in running.

"After all, why back it in single-figures pre-race when history suggests he will soon be backable at a double-figure price after the opening few fences?

"Synchronised has such a history. He traded at 22-1 and 24-1 in running before winning the Lexus and Gold Cup this season and at 17-2 and 23-1 in winning his Nationals at Chepstow and Uttoxeter.

"His SPs for those races were 8-1, 8-1, 5-1 and 15-2 respectively.

"Of course, once a system becomes known it often becomes redundant and there's a chance Synchronised will get into a smooth rhythm early on and his odds will tumble accordingly.

"But, even so, it may not be best to get drawn into the bookmakers' hype once the debate begins over what price Synchronised will start on Saturday.

"History tells us that he is likely to be too short - bookmakers have already shortened him into as low as 6-1 in places when he is around 9-1 on Betfair - but the more sophisticated exchange market may paint a truer picture of the betting reality."

Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Synchronised is becoming increasingly likely to take his chance in the John Smith's Grand National at Aintree on Saturday week......

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Carlos' comeback is inevitable but it shouldn't be happening

Premier League / Richard Aikman / 18 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Back in the fold - Carlos enjoys training with Sergio Aguero

"Tevez has been granted grace after apologising to his manager and team-mates, only after he realised no one was prepared to gamble on his astronomical wage demands or, more pointedly, his precious temperament."

Carlos Tevez is due to return to Premier League action against Chelsea - something we never thought would happen during the Argentinean's self-imposed strike - and it's a sign that City are getting desperate in the title race, says Richard Aikman

Back in January Roberto Mancini described Carlos Tevez's prospects of ever playing for Manchester City again as "impossible". Two months later and with City's title challenge losing momentum it appears that the Argentinian international is poised to come out of exile. Principles, it seems, are all very well, but not at any price.

When Mancini publicly closed the door on Tevez, City were three points clear at the top of the league and shoo-ins to win the title, backed as low as [1.4] to do so. Since then, they have been knocked out of two cup competitions, are second-favourites to their Manchester rivals in the Premier League and have endured three disappointing results on the bounce. It's time to reach for the Batphone.

Tevez's return would unquestionably be welcomed by most of the players. When he first reappeared at City's Carrington training ground Micah Richards was so pleased to see him he picked him up and started throwing him in the air like a rag doll.

"I have always been a big fan of Tevez," said Richards before City's Europa League round of 16 second leg against Sporting Lisbon - a tie they lost on away goals.

"There were games last year season when he carried us on his own and in these sort of games he would get a 1-0 win for us. It's up to the manager ultimately but I would love to see him back."

Kolo Toure has also said his piece. "It would be great if he could play against Chelsea because he's got a great record against them," said the former Arsenal defender.

"I would love it if he scored the goal to win us the title because for me he's a great player. A problem can happen but his quality is still there. It's great to have him in the squad again. He can score goals and he's a strong player."

In other words, who cares if he went AWOL leaving us all in the lurch? Who cares if he was playing golf in Buenos Aires while we were all having to miss Christmas and suffer derby defeat in the FA Cup because someone was sulking in South America? Who cares if Tevez is the worst example of the modern-day, self-serving Premier League footballer. He is good, he might win us a title; the normal rules don't apply.

Tevez has been granted grace after apologising to his manager and team-mates, only after he realised no one was prepared to gamble on his astronomical wage demands or, more pointedly, his precious temperament. He should have been banished to the reserves for perpetuity, not welcomed back with open arms. It is not so much about who was right or wrong; maybe there was a misunderstanding, maybe Mancini did show him disrespect. So what? The lunatics should not be allowed to govern the asylum. As Al Pacino says in Carlito's Way: "There is a line you cross, you don't never come back from. Point of no return." All the leading clubs in Europe should have agreed not to sign him.

When Carlitos, as expected, crosses the touchline as a substitute against Chelsea on Wednesday, the fans' reaction will be no different to that of the players. After all, you don't see Manchester United fans booing Wayne Rooney, even though he held Manchester United to ransom over a new contract by threatening to leave, do you? That was all his agent's fault.

Mancini has felt it necessary to alter his stance over Tevez because the rattling wheels of City title train are threatening to dislodge. The Citizens may have won four of their last five league encounters, but those victories came against eminently beatable sides: Fulham, Aston Villa, Blackburn and Bolton. The title run-in does not make for such comfortable viewing.

Anyone passing off the Swansea and Sporting defeats as small bumps in the road are overlooking the supine nature of those defeats. Admittedly, they have missed the excellent Vincent Kompany and Joleon Lescott, who were both injured in the first leg against Sporting. But the fact remains that this that a side who have not been at the business end of a title run-in before - and they are showing signs of mental fragility.

The likes of David Silva, Sergio Agüero, Samir Nasri and Gareth Barry are fine players but, unlike United, none of them have stayed course and distance over a title race. Indeed for Nasri and Gaël Clichy the horrors of last season's spontaneous combustion at Arsenal are more likely to spring to mind.

City have fantastic home form, but the visit of a resurgent Chelsea couldn't come at a more vulnerable time for them. The Blues' old guard - John Terry, Didier Drogba, Frank Lampard, Ashley Cole - are determined to make the most of their second lease of life to show they still have what it takes at the highest level, and if they demonstrate the warrior spirit that saw them through against Napoli last week - the sort of spirit Mancini wishes he had in his ranks - then not even Carlito will be able to show City the way.

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