Showing posts with label remains. Show all posts
Showing posts with label remains. Show all posts

Wednesday, March 21, 2012

US Masters: Why Tiger Woods remains overrated

General RSS / / 20 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Ralph won't be backing Tiger at Augusta

Ralph won't be backing Tiger at Augusta

"In the Tiger Specials market he’s [1.27] to go through 2012 without getting any closer to his dream of catching the 18 majors of his boyhood idol Jack Nicklaus."

Tiger Woods has enjoyed a mini-resurgence of late and remains a popular in the Betfair markets. However, Ralph Ellis doesn't believe the former-world number is worth backing this spring...

Often it seems we enjoy knocking down the heroes we have so lovingly built up. But that theory doesn't apply to Tiger Woods.

It is more than two years now since the fateful Friday night when the life of the greatest golfer of the 21st century began to unravel, yet still most people can't accept that he has returned to the ranks of the mere mortals.

His game probably hit rock bottom last year when he dropped out of the world's top 50, and since then he's been slowly and solidly rebuilding. He won the World Golf Challenge - his own charity event - shared third at Abu Dhabi at the start of the 2012 season and was then second in the Honda Classic after shooting a 62 on Sunday. Yesterday he was producing a decent round alongside Justin Rose in the Tavistock Cup on behalf of the Albany Golf community in the Bahamas that he helped to build and finance.

He has climbed back to number 18 in the latest rankings, and it's a decent enough run of form, but that's about the right word: 'decent'. You could find other adjectives like 'solid', 'respectable', 'promising', or 'reasonable'. But they are the sort of way that somebody like Bo Van Pelt in 25th place is used to being described. For a man like Woods, who has lived his life with superlatives, none of them have the resonance of the way the Tiger of old was spoken of in exalted terms.
Yet the Woods aura remains. He is [9.2] favourite to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational this week. And he's second favourite at [9.6] behind Rory McIlroy in the betting for The Masters. For the life of me I can't understand why.

He's only just recovering from yet another injury, and while the latest Achilles problem might have come and gone relatively quickly it is still a sign that his overall physical fitness isn't right. He's going from one minor problem to another and that's no shape to be in ahead of a gruelling four day walk round Augusta.

What's worse there's another storm about to break across his personal life, with revelations from a kiss and tell book by former coach Hank Haney about some of the reasons behind his failed marriage. It brands him selfish and arrogant, a man so isolated from others that if he went to the fridge to get an ice pop he'd never get one for his coach at the same time.

The advance publicity suggests it will be a pretty tawdry volume. Having seen some exerts I'm not sure I'd bother to get Haney an ice pop either. Tiger has already said he 'won't waste my time reading it'. That's as may be, but he will find himself having to waste his time answering questions about some of the stories the book contains, and none of that is going to help a man trying to win his first Major since that amazing US Open in 2008.

Betfair's punters know that really. In the Tiger Specials market he's [1.27] to go through 2012 without getting any closer to his dream of catching the 18 majors of his boyhood idol Jack Nicklaus. But still the hope lingers that the old magic will return. It seems we know we will wait in vain - but we still won't stop waiting.

Five things you might not know about Bo Van Pelt

1. Born May 1975 in Richmond, Indiana, his father Bob was drafted for the NFL by the Philadelphia Eagles after a successful college American Football career

2. As a college golfer at Oklahoma State he got bored with the game and gave away his clubs - thankfully after three months he had a change of heart and the college coach Mike Holder found him some new ones.

3. He always insists on marking his own ball rather than letting his caddie do it - but always uses the ball marker on his glove because he hates to carry nickels in his pocket.

4. He's only ever won one PGA Tour event - in Milaukee in 2009 - but his career earnings top 13 million dollars.

5. He promotes a new range of clothing branded Alial Fital and designed by his friend retired NFL quarterback Gibran Hamdan.

There was drama galore in the final round of the WGC Cadillac with big ramifications for the Masters betting. Tiger Woods pulled out injured, Rory McIlroy finished strongly again, and Justin Rose won his first WGC event. Mike Norman reports......

Romilly Evans muses over the apparent difficulty in closing out golf events from the final-round lead....

Rory McIlroy is the new World Number One after a two-stroke victory at the Honda Classic. But joint runner-up there Tiger Woods was in imperious form himself and things are tight in the Betfair US Masters winner market....


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Saturday, June 18, 2011

US Open Update: Majors man Schwartzel remains under-rated

US Open RSS / Paul Krishnamurty / 18 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Charl Schwartzel – Good value in both markets at halfway

Charl Schwartzel – Good value in both markets at halfway

“For my money, Rory needs to shoot par or better to take a virtually unassailable lead into Sunday.”

With Rory well clear, Paul Krishnamurty casts his eye over the Winner w/o McIlroy market...

We may all be golf fans, but yesterday's events at Congressional served to illustrate the very different perspectives between patriots, pundits and punters. Those in the first two groups seem united in their joy at Rory McIlroy's sensational, record-breaking performance, which leaves the Irishman six shots clear at halfway, nine ahead of third place. However, while we punters might have wished Rory well before the week started, we are now generally united in hoping he starts dropping shots, preferably several and soon. Indeed, Rory's double-bogey on his final hole yesterday came as quite a relief, keeping the event alive as a betting heat.

These major weekends are the highlights of the golf punting year, so it would be a terrible shame to see this great event reduced to a one-man show. That used to happen quite regularly when Tiger Woods was at his peak, but we've been spoilt in recent years, particularly in the US Open. For my money, Rory needs to shoot par or better to take a virtually unassailable lead into Sunday, which doesn't seem like a stiff target given the way he's played so far. Of course, many will remember his catastrophic collapse at Augusta and hit the lay button, but that doesn't interest me yet. I need to see that there's somebody close enough to put McIlroy under some pressure first, and that isn't the case yet.

So what do for a bet today? 2-balls will certainly be an option when announced later, and it may be a good time to start playing the 'Without McIlroy' market. Take out Rory and we'd have a typically thrilling weekend in store. Y E Yang leads the rest by three, but only four shots separate the next 41 players. As a former PGA champion, Yang is respected but the competition is fierce. I'm opening my book with three trades from off the pace.

Firstly as argued on Thursday, Charl Schwartzel remains under-estimated since his Masters triumph. Given that pedigree, odds of [34.0] from two shots behind third place is huge. With top-20 finishes in the last four majors, he clearly enjoys these gruelling weekends. Considering he's only two shots off third place overall, Schwartzel also may be worth a small interest to win the event at [250.0].

On the same level par total, John Senden may lack majors pedigree, but his ultra-reliable long-game should theoretically be ideal for a US Open. This is only Senden's third crack at this major, and after two missed cuts he appears to have learnt a few lessons. If as expected, conditions get harder over the weekend, this consistent Aussie could be in his element, running up pars while others fall away. That was the case when producing his previous best effort in a major, finishing fourth behind Tiger Woods in the 2007 PGA at Southern Hills.

Finally another Aussie. Jason Day was runner-up on his Masters debut, and from +1 at halfway, is no forlorn hope to repeat the achievement in his first US Open. Day has been making a habit of brilliant late rattles, coming from well behind to finish sixth at Sawgrass, and fifth last time out in the Byron Nelson. Improving all the time, and with four top-tens in his last five starts, expect to see Day there or thereabouts again over the weekend, at least for the minor honours.

Outright

0.5u Charl Schwartzel @ [240.0]

Betting without Rory McIlroy

2u Charl Schwartzel @ [36.0]
1u John Senden @ [65.0]
1u Jason Day @ [65.0]

Record breaking Rory sprints clear. It's all over already surely?...

Paul Krishnamurty picks out three major winners to go to war with at Congressional......

He's off again! McIlroy roars to the front with an immaculate 65 but can he stay there this time?...


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