Dutch Moto GP Betting: Unstoppable Stoner to win again

Moto GP / Trent Burton / 23 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

CAsey Stoner comes home first at Silverstone last time out - expect a repeat of this scene in Assen

"Traditionally, Stoner has gone well at Assen with two wins and a number of podiums and again it will take a stellar effort from someone else to stop him."

Trent Burton looks ahead to Saturday's race in Assen where he can't see past runaway championship leader Casey Stoner leading the field home

It was a wet and chaotic British MotoGP a fortnight ago and so far in Assen this weekend, things are no different.

The Dutch TT is 'the cathedral' of motorcycle racing. The fast and flowing circuit isn't quite the spectacle it used to be after recent layout changes but there were other problems today with torrential rain in the morning and the afternoon's sessions cancelled following an oil spill in Moto2.

Silverstone saw Casey Stoner put on the latest episode of 'Catch Me If You Can.' Even though we had no dry track time today and he was in third in the wet, he's still as short as [1.74] for the win in Holland with Marco Simoncelli, his closest rival in a developing market, available at [5.3]. That's as good an indication to the Australian's form as you'll see. Traditionally, Stoner has gone well at Assen with two wins and a number of podiums and again it will take a stellar effort from someone else to stop him.

So who can? Jorge Lorenzo ([6.0]) once again looks the man best suited to. He won comfortably here last year and his crash last time out was his first DNF since the latter stages of 2009. Yamaha will be running special livery this weekend to celebrate 50 years of GP Racing and they're very keen to celebrate that with a win. At his current price the defending champ represents excellent value again. Jorge can ill afford to let Stoner get away after surrendering the championship lead. But what he needs to do, and what that Yamaha will let him do, are very different things.

Simoncelli's price is all about is raw speed. He was quickest in today's wet session and, in qualifying at least, has been the only person to get close to Stoner of late. But he lacks consistency. While in line for a podium at Silverstone he crashed out yet again. By all accounts he should have four podiums already this season, yet he has none. He's also crashed whilst leading in Jerez; crashed on the first lap in Estoril and, of course, had that incident with Pedrosa in Le Mans. He'll eventually break the duck and make the podium but I can't have him for a win until he proves he can keep it together for a full race distance.

The dark horse of the weekend could be Valentino Rossi. Imagine that - Valentino Rossi, a dark horse. His British GP weekend was probably the worst of his career. Not cracking the top ten in qualifying and practice was one thing but then to finish nearly a minute behind the winner, in the wet, was a catastrophe.

Ducati have a new bike for him this weekend. The GP11.1. It's the 2012 frame on this year's bike and there's a new clutch system as well, based on the Honda. The Italian is very upbeat about it and was second in this morning's wet but we won't get an idea of how much of an improvement there is until, or rather if, we get a few dry sessions tomorrow. I don't see him challenging for the win, but [2.2] to finish in the top three, for the first time this season, is a punt worth taking on Rossi.

Remember, being Assen, the race is on Saturday. The field seems a little closer this weekend, and the weather should play a major role again, so anything could happen. I say could, but it most likely will be Stoner further stamping his authority on 2011.

Recommended Bets
Back Casey Stoner for the win at [1.74]
Back Valentino Rossi for the podium at [2.2]

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British Moto GP Betting: Same old Stoner

Moto GP / Trent Burton / 10 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Casey Stoner remains the man to beat, whatever the conditions

"Last week Stoner was (an unheard of) [1.6] for the win, in which he dutifully delivered, and after today’s sessions he’s at that price yet again. The form he’s in at the moment, coupled with the fact he enjoys Silverstone, means he’s without question the man most deserving of your money this weekend."

The weather has already played a big part in the racing so far at Silverstone and threatens to carry on doing so but the class and speed of Casey Stoner has been on show nonetheless. Oppose him at your peril, says Trent Burton.

The first day's practice at Silverstone has offered us four season in one day. The MotoGP boys' ninety minutes on track had a little bit of everything - from bright sun to pouring rain and everything in between. There was one constant through all of this though.

In every condition, Casey Stoner was in a league of his own. Six tenths quicker than the field in the dry, two seconds quicker in the wet and then seven tenths up on the drying track. And despite all this he spoke of a missing a lot of grip in the morning session. Everyone else has to be hoping like hell he doesn't find it.

Last week Stoner was (an unheard of) [1.6] for the win, in which he dutifully delivered, and after today's sessions he's at that price yet again. The form he's in at the moment, coupled with the fact he enjoys Silverstone, means he's without question the man most deserving of your money this weekend.

Last year's runaway winner Jorge Lorenzo has looked comfortable on the Yamaha today but there's no question it's down on power. Silverstone is a fast and flowing circuit and not the place where the nimbleness of the Yamaha can make up for it's downfalls in the top speed department. It's visibly smooth, but just not that quick. He's not been able to get within a second of Stoner today but he's still a second favourite for the win, albeit a distant one at [5.7]. He'll take it to the Australian the best he can, but I expect another points consolidating ride from Jorge on Sunday rather than outright glory.

Everyone has been saying, pretty much since round one now that Marco Simoncelli is more than due his first ever- podium. He got a terrible start last week from pole and you got the feeling he was almost scared to overtake after the Le Mans incident and cruised home in sixth. He's been the only guy to get close to Stoner so far at Silverstone and I'd be taking anything around [1.6] for a top 3 result.

The biggest cheers in Britain are bizarrely not reserved for the British riders but instead for Valentino Rossi. But based on today's performance there will be little to cheer about. Yes, this is Rossi's first proper look at the circuit having missed last year's race through injury. But even so, to see him in twelfth, over three seconds off the pace, in this morning's dry session was a huge shock. Then the rain came. Usually the rain is a great leveler and like he did in the wet in Jerez, I expected to see him much closer to the front. Instead he came home in ninth.

I went and had a good look at the Ducatis around various points in the circuit today and it's clear they are having real difficulties with that bike mid corner. Rossi just can't put the power down with any sort of confidence and they need to rectify that as quickly as possible. It's not often you see a look on Vale's face that's one of dejection, but I saw that this afternoon.

From a hometown point of view, things are shaping up very nicely indeed. Cal Crutchlow has been in great spirits all week, ready to give it his all in his first ever home GP.

It's not just Cal going well for the Brits, though. In the 125cc class Danny Webb was second quickest in the wet whilst in Moto2 Scott Redding was fastest in the dry and Bradley Smith third quickest in the wet. If you're after a patriotic punt, given the forecast, I'd be taking Bradley Smith at [2.1] to make his first Moto2 podium on Sunday.

I'll be back briefly tomorrow after qualifying with an update on the progress everyone's made with some more track time and also take a punt on the biggest gamble of the weekend. The weather.

Recommended Bets

Back Casey Stoner for the win at [1.6]
Back Bradley Smith for a Top 3 in Moto2 at [2.1]

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