US Presidential Election Betting: Did Clint Eastwood make Obama's day?

"In an election that both sides are adamant represents a battle for 'America's future', nobody wants to be portrayed as the past. Having your candidate upstaged by an embarrassing performance by an 82-year-old actor can hardly help in that respect."

Clint Eastwood's strange, rambling speech has gobbled up the headlines following the Republican National Convention and the Betfair markets have reacted by shortening Obama's odds to be next President. Paul Krishnamurty explains all

It is too early to tell if Mitt Romney received a poll bounce following the Republican National Convention but punters have not been slow to express an opinion. Money has poured in for Obama over the past few days, with the President now just 1.538/15 to win a second term as he heads to Charlotte, North Carolina, for his own party's convention.

Given the lack of new polling evidence, the response is a little surprising. Recent nationwide surveys all point towards a dead-heat and, even if Obama is faring better in the key swing states, his advantages are generally small. Presidential challengers tend to receive a boost once they've introduced themselves to the nation, so Romney backers were probably expecting momentum to shift their way this week. If it doesn't, many will blame Clint Eastwood's bizarre, rambling conversation with an empty chair.

Let's be clear. Celebrity supporters do not decide elections - especially one as divisive and close as this. They do, however, have the potential to dominate media coverage and in this case, the effect has been to ruin Romney's unique opportunity to define himself before his opponents do so. While very few outside the Republican Party are talking about Romney's address, the Democrat machine is busy defining the challenger on their terms.

Obama's response yesterday in Iowa offered a clue of the attack lines to come. The President dismissed the RNC as belonging in the age of black and white TV, failing to offer "a single new idea, just the same old policies that have been sticking it to the middle class for years."

In an election that both sides are adamant represents a battle for 'America's future', nobody wants to be portrayed as the past. Having your candidate upstaged by an embarrassing performance by an 82-year-old actor can hardly help in that respect. Time will tell whether this episode has caused any damage, but satirists loved it and as the McCain/Palin ticket found four years ago, programmes like The Daily Show and Saturday Night Live can be lethal for political reputations.

Attention now shifts to Charlotte and a potentially decisive week at the Democratic Convention. Even Obama's staunchest critics acknowledge his rhetorical qualities and the President's keynote address will make uncomfortable viewing for Republicans. Expect him to associate Romney with running mate Paul Ryan's radical budget, savaging the plans as heartless social darwinism. Ryan's RNC speech was taken apart by fact-checkers, giving the Democrats further ammunition to negatively brand their opponents before average voters get to know them. Democrat party managers are notoriously risk-averse so don't expect an Eastwood-style disaster to steal Obama's thunder.

A further angle of particular interest to punters is the venue for this week's convention. Obama won North Carolina in 2008 but the state has been widely tipped to return to the Republicans this year. Even the electoral map projections that strongly favour Obama lean towards Romney here, who remains a 1.51/2 chance to win the state.

The two most recent polls, however, show Obama closing the gap to no more than one point. As thousands of Democrats gather in Charlotte, they will be looking to expand an impressive organisation in the state further and build on that polling momentum. Given that Obama is currently ahead in every swing state, if he does manage to turn North Carolina around, we are looking at a landslide.

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The Betfair Contrarian: Why Sarah Palin will win the 2012 Republican Presidential nomination

US Politics / The Betfair Contrarian / 02 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Palin v Obama in 2012?

"Their 2012 campaign will focus on Obama’s shortcomings and promote an alternative, and there’s nobody better suited to that than Palin, who has been on his case at every setback."

Who will take on Barack Obama for the 2012 Presidential election? Betfair punters expect Mitt Romney to get the Republican nomination while some have even speculated that Donald Trump could have a crack at the White House. The Betfair Contrarian explains why everybody's favourite Alaskan is his choice...

The Contrarian has proven in the past that he's even more adept at making money out of politics than an expense-fiddling MP, his latest triumph coming when opposing David Miliband at [1.43] in last year's Labour leadership battle. He's spotted another big opportunity - backing Sarah Palin to be the Republican candidate for the 2012 election at the huge price of [10.0]. Wondering why you should put your money on someone with as many critics as fans? Let the Contrarian explain...

"The Republican Party leadership vacuum"

This was a term coined by Washington Post journalist Dana Milbank in reaction to billionaire Donald Trump [46.0] tearing down the house at last month's Conservative Political Action Conference when he delivered a speech hinting at an unlikely push for the presidency. Milbank concluded that the positive reaction to a figure as politically uninvolved as Trump, whose views far from mirror those of the Republican party, demonstrates the lack of credible leaders. Such a situation lends itself to opting for a candidate that, while potentially divisive, has the strength of character and conviction in their beliefs to win voters round, boxes that even Palin's enemies would concede that she emphatically ticks.

There are lessons in the Democrats' 2008 success

Barack Obama's landslide victory illustrated that a relatively inexperienced, charismatic politician with a touch of celebrity status is sometimes more likely to capture the imagination of the public than uninspiring establishment veterans. The Republicans' 2008 choice John McCain was dubbed "McSame" and dismissed as a George W Bush clone, while the current 2012 favourite Mitt Romney [4.5] has fallen victim to nicknames like Mittbot in reference to his perceived robotic delivery.

Palin is the antithesis of Obama

Obama's landslide surge to the White House and subsequent rather flat performance has left the electorate underwhelmed, and opened the door for the Republicans' unprecedented mid-term gains, for which Palin earned much credit. Their 2012 campaign will focus on Obama's shortcomings and promote an alternative, and there's nobody better suited to that role than Palin, who has been on his case at every setback of his tenure. She also has the invaluable experience of having been a key player in the team that opposed him last time. That defeat will have been hugely educational, much as Richard Nixon benefitted from the lessons of his 1960 loss to JFK to see off George McGovern by record-breaking margins in 1972.

Allegations of widespread unpopularity are unproven

Palin constantly complains about biased reporting from what she labels the "lamestream media" and her supporters are adamant that the press portrayal of her as widely disliked is inaccurate. There could well be substance to that theory, with a national poll at the time of the last election showing that just 19.6 per cent of citizens trust most news media reporting. Evidence of this is her daughter Bristol's showing in the 2010 series of Dancing With the Stars, in which she exceeded expectations to finish third, surviving on five separate occasions despite registering the lowest score, progress that was credited to many Americans warming to Palin senior and therefore voting for the daughter.

Running mates often go on to be presidential candidates

If reality TV voting patterns aren't enough to convince you, there are a fair few examples of running mates, as Palin was for McCain in 2008, going on to stand for the presidency further down the line. Some, like Lyndon Johnson and George Bush I, succeeded victorious candidates, but it is not unheard of for running mates in unsuccessful campaigns to later earn a chance to stand for the big job, with Bob Dole a recent Republican example, battling with Bill Clinton in 1996 having previously been part of a failed Gerald Ford bid.

Who will take on Barack Obama for the 2012 Presidential election? Betfair punters expect Mitt Romney to get the Republican nomination while some have even speculated that Donald Trump could have a crack at the White House. The Betfair Contrarian explains why everybody's favourite Alaskan is his choice......

Barack Obama calls for calm and consideration as he makes an emotional speech at memorial service for victims of Saturday's tragedy in Tucson....

Obama may have taken a pounding in the mid-terms but that makes now the time to get behind another victory when America next goes to the polls, says Paul Krishnamurty...

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