US Moto GP Betting: Lorenzo the magnificent

Moto GP / Trent Burton / 23 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Jorge Lorenzo looked fantastic in practice yesterday

"It’s Lorenzo who’s fastest so far and the smiles are wide in his garage. It’s the first time this year we’ve seen him favourite, at [2.88], but the way he’s riding at the moment, it’s probably justified."

It's a three-way fight for favouritism between Stoner, Pedrosa and Lorenzo as we head to the States and of these three it is the latter who looks to have the best tools at his disposal to end up on the highest part of the podium, says Trent Burton.

As the bikes head Stateside this weekend, the championship is wide open again.

Germany saw the race of the year so far as Dani Pedrosa stunned everyone, and by his own admission - himself, by taking the win just two races after returning from injury. But in what was a remarkable weekend, that wasn't the main story.

There was the subplot of Ducatis' continuing, and it seems worsening struggles, highlighted by Valentino Rossi qualifying in 16th. And then there was the bigger picture of the championship battle between Jorge Lorenzo and Casey Stoner.

For the second race in a row Stoner had lead only to suffer from rear grip problems towards the end of the race. And again he lost second place on the last lap. But this time it stung a little more as he lost the position to Lorenzo, enabling him to take another four point bite out of his title lead. So much in sport is about confidence and Lorenzo's is through the roof right now. Stoner's is ever so slightly on the wane and Rossi has been putting up posters on lamp posts looking for his.

Laguna Seca is one of the most technical and challenging circuits we go to. The first half of the lap is flowing and pure Yamaha territory with the second half a little more point and squirt, which suits the Honda.

It's Lorenzo who's fastest so far and the smiles are wide in his garage. It's the first time this year we've seen him favourite, at [2.88], but the way he's riding at the moment, it's probably justified. His consistency in yesterday's afternoon session was a thing of sheer beauty as he reeled off long strings of fast laps, all within a tenth of each other, as everyone else searched for setup.

Stoner loves Laguna and has finished on the podium here three of the last four years, with one win. But he struggled a tad on Friday. They seem to have found a cure for the tyre problems of late but have sacrificed in other areas as a result. Even so, [3.3] seems a little too big. I've no doubt they'll sort the problems on Saturday and we'll see Lorenzo and Stoner almost as equal favourites.

Pedrosa is looking like his old self again, which is great to see. Quick on Friday, he'll be in the mix with the other two for the win. At [4.3] it's Pedrosa who is probably the best value to win as there's little to separate him from his team-mate and countryman. Having missed four races, he's also not got a championship to worry about, just this race.

The best hope someone has of rattling the top three should be Ben Spies. The American was a little off the pace on Friday but supremely confident they had at least another half a second in the bike. He's ridden Laguna Seca more times than anyone in the field from his Superbike days and, whilst it will take an extraordinary effort, I think he can make that podium. There's been a bit of a 'feeling' around the number 11 garage this week and he seems immune to home race pressure. [2.84] is an excellent price for what, to some, would be a surprise podium. Not this writer, though.

Remember the time difference so the race will be live from 22:00 on Sunday night. For the first time in ages there's zero chance of rain so here's hoping for a race every bit as cracking as last week's.

Recommended bets

Back Jorge Lorenzo for the win at [2.88]
Back Ben Spies for the podium at [2.84]

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Estoril Moto GP Betting: Lorenzo the magnificent

Moto GP / Trent Burton / 29 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Jorge Lorenzo loves it in Estoril

The bikes are back and so is Trent Burton. Here are his thoughts on the Estoril Moto GP and the best bets on offer.

We've been talking about it all month. Counting the sleeps. Worrying about the weather. Predicting this and that. And then on Friday, it was finally here. No, not the bloody wedding.

MotoGP has had a month off after the Japanese GP had to be rescheduled after the unfortunate events that have taken place there this year. And since the mad events of Jerez, we've been desperate to get the bikes back on track.

Jorge Lorenzo may have won in Jerez by twenty seconds but that barely made the top five talking points. There were breakdowns and crashes aplenty, none more interesting than Valentino Rossi's fall that took out Casey Stoner. There was a bit of hubbub in the press as a whole host of things were blown out of all context and proportion but the simple facts were this...

Rossi made a mistake. Stoner was unlucky to get taken out. Sometimes that happens in racing. It's no secret the two aren't exactly mates so all it did was widen an already wide divide. And prove that underneath that often gruff exterior, Casey has quite the dry sense of humour.

So now we find ourselves at Estoril. Lorenzo Land. Jorge has never lost a race on an MotoGP bike since he first came here in 2008. The Yamaha might struggle down the long straight here as it's still a little down on power, but even so he's been consistently quick during Friday's practice. Second favourite at [2.94] is an excellent price for the Spaniard to go four in row.

It's been the Hondas setting the pace though. Marco Simoncelli ended Friday the quickest, the most consistently fast rider over the course of the day was Dani Pedrosa and, despite a few setup issues, Stoner was still able to dial in a healthy supply of quick laps too. Simoncelli might look tempting at 6.4 for the win but it's still not a risk I'd be taking. But if his podium price heads up around [1.8], it's well worth a look.

Pedrosa's [7.6] is more tempting however. He's managed a third and a second so far this year with a bung shoulder that he's had fixed in the month off. If it holds up for the full distance there's no doubt he'll be right up there. That price is covered in doubt about the shoulder but he's said it feels a lot better after testing it out on Friday. As such, I'd be looking at that price now before it steadily falls as we approach race day.

Stoner is an interesting one. He's never done particularly well at Estoril and hasn't blown everyone way early on in practice, which is his usual style. He's a [2.76] favourite but I'm much more drawn to what's on offer for the two Spaniards this weekend.

But the forecast for the weekend is rain what might change things a little. If it does rain, a certain Italian comes into the equation. Rossi was quick in the wet in Jerez before he crashed and he's been good already in the dry here, much higher up the order than he has been of late. I wouldn't get too excited and stump up for the [7.8] price on a win but, if wet, [1.76] for a first Ducati podium for Valentino is certainly something to consider.

Rain or shine, the times are desperately close so it should be a cracker. The Ducatis will wear red, Jorge is after a fairytale and I'm sure, whoever wins, they'll give us a wave from the balcony at the end. Just don't expect Casey and Valentino to kiss and make up....

Recommended Bets

Back Jorge Lorenzo for the win at [2.94]
Back Valentino Rossi for a Top 3 (if wet) at [1.76]

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