Daily Tipping 
/ Jamie Lynch / 07 March 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Jamie expects big things at Cheltenham for Michael O'Leary
"the Wednesday of Cheltenham promises to be a big day for Michael O'Leary."
Timeform Chief Correspondent Jamie Lynch turns his attention to day two of the Cheltenham Festival...
I haven't yet found it in any medical or psychiatric journals, but I'm sure there's such a phenomenon as 'second day syndrome', with specific reference to a holiday. It's only a theory, but , from personal experience, I'm convinced the condition exists.
I'll list the symptoms, and you can decide whether any of them hit home, before setting about presenting my documented findings to the World Health Organisation. Where 'x' equals the first day of a holiday and 'y' equals the second, common sensations and manifestations of 'y' include: mild nausea and anxiety, yawning, a vulnerability to tour guides selling excursions, alcohol not having the same effect, finding the sun suddenly burning your skin, finding travel companions suddenly getting under your skin, a re-evaluation of the currency, an onset of insecurity brought about by the tanned and relaxed natives (the same tanned and relaxed natives who had seemed such figures of fun the night before), a 30% decrease in walking speed, a 30% increase in the likelihood of getting run over because of said decrease in walking speed combined with the confusion over which way to look while crossing the road, and semi-incontinence.
Just me then, is it?
I'm not sure second day syndrome applies fully to Cheltenham because it's not a holiday in the strictest sense, but some of it does. However, full-blown second day syndrome comes about from proper holidays, the sort that involves flying, more often than not with Ryanair, whose CEO is Michael O'Leary. Now there's an interesting man. When O'Leary isn't running one of the world's most successful airlines or burning Manchester United shirts or telling various consumer groups and environmentalists to 'f' off, he's overseeing his high-cost string of racehorses, under the Gigginstown Stud banner, and the Wednesday of Cheltenham promises to be a big day for him. Let's have a look.
RACE OF THE DAY
I don't know. If Grands Crus runs in the RSA then it's probably that, but if Boston Bob takes on Simonsig in the Neptune then it's probably that. It should be the Champion Chase but for some reason - and maybe it's just me - this division, featuring many of the same faces as previous years, doesn't get the juices flowing. Cue thrilling race and stirring finish.
KEY HORSE OF THE DAY
I do know the answer to this one. Vendor. Now, [4.4] might sound like a short price for a 20+ field full of unexposed juveniles for the Fred Winter, but in Vendor we have what could be - and what we at Timeform think definitely is - the best handicapped horse of the Festival. Timeform assess form and express it through ratings, as do the BHA Handicappers. An edge exists when there's a difference between their view and ours, and it's a big difference and therefore big edge in the case of Vendor.
The shortest-priced favourite in seven runnings of the Fred Winter was Ashkazar in 2008, sent off at 15/8. Given Vendor's profile and the amount he looks to have in hand, the fact his race comes late in the day, and the snowballing effect that money can have at Cheltenham, it's not stretching it to say that Ashkazar's little record could be broken on Wednesday.
STORY OF THE DAY
The heartwarming tales of farmers unearthing a Cheltenham horse or plumbers verging on a big roll-up win go out of the window when there's an A-lister in town, and Sir Alex Ferguson is likely to be there on Wednesday to see his Harry The Viking go in the opening four-miler. Harry was reportedly one of those involved in coughgate at Nicholls' yard, but the Fergie mind games are the stuff of legend, and the form book says the Harry The Viking has an excellent chance; he gave 5 lb and a beating to recent Grimthorpe winner Ikorodu Road, also looking an out-and-out stayer that day.
NOTABLE ABSENTEES OF THE DAY Spare a thought for Master Minded, who was absolutely spectacular on his day and would still have added something to this year's Champion Chase but for the serious injury he sustained in the King George. Also, however well First Lieutenant runs in the RSA, keep in mind that unbeaten chaser Last Instalment was considered the Gigginstown number one for that race until a setback intervened.
MEANINGLESS STAT THAT WILL BE TROTTED OUT BUT HAS ABSOLUTELY NO RELEVANCE WHATSOEVER OF THE DAY
Nicky Henderson has a poor record in the Neptune (artist formerly known as the Baring Bingham, or the Ballymore Properties, or the Royal & SunAlliance).
WORTHWHILE STAT OF THE DAY
If you haven't done so already, read Simon Rowlands' article on the Cheltenham Bumper.
'Favour experience over potential, achievement over promise, and do not be put off by a horse having suffered one, or possibly two, defeats.'
DECISIONS, DECISIONS
If, as seems increasingly likely, Boston Bob goes for the Albert Bartlett, that leaves the conundrum of whether to get stuck into Simonsig at short odds in the Neptune. I think I'll swerve it. If it makes sense, I'd rather have backed him at a bigger price in the more competitive Supreme, because, above all, Simonsig has impressed with his speed. He might just be too good for them in the Neptune, but he's been outstayed once before, albeit by Fingal Bay.
BET TO HAVE NOW
The Coral Cup market could look very different on the day to what it does at the minute, as many of those currently at the head of the betting have other engagements they might take up. Therefore, the race is ripe to have a go at something now, and the gem I (and in this instance I mean Editorial Manager Simon Walker) have come up with is Dunraven Storm.
Mid-field in the Cheltenham Bumper two years ago, Dunraven Storm started his hurdling career with a bang, winning twice (beat Recession Proof latterly) prior to chasing home Cue Card in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham. He lost his way subsequently, something clearly not right, but he looked on the way back at Ascot last time when fourth in a strong handicap, and he still has untapped potential for the sort of stamina test the Coral Cup provides.
BET TO HAVE ON THE DAY
Enough mights, coulds, possiblys and maybes, it's time to say something conclusive: Bobs Worth won't win the RSA Chase. Bobs Worth is a bad price with Grands Crus still quoted, and he'd be a worse price without him. He's still living on his hurdling reputation to some extent, but Nicky Henderson is that good a trainer that if they take off straight away over fences they struggle to ever hit the heights. Bobs Worth mightn't have even won a chase yet if Cue Card had jumped the last better at Newbury, and, for me, he was beaten fair and square by Invictus last time. Lay, lay, lay.
When Bobs Worth inevitably wins by half the track, second day syndrome will take on a whole new meaning for me.
...........
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