Friday, November 4, 2011

La Liga Weekend Matches: Fireworks at San Mames

Spanish Football RSS / Tobias Gourlay / 04 November 2011 / Leave a Comment

Athletic Bilbao will charge at Barcelona on Sunday evening

Athletic Bilbao will charge at Barcelona on Sunday evening

"Gonzalo Higuain has started five games for Real Madrid this season and scored in each of them"

Barca go to Bielsa and Tobias Gourlay's excited. Gonzalo Higuain's got him a bit hot under the collar as well, but he's cooler on Mallorca and Sevilla

Real Mallorca v Sevilla
Saturday 17:00
Mallorca [3.05] Sevilla [2.56] draw [3.4]

Thank goodness Spanish football fans don't usually bother going to away matches.

Sevilla have drawn their last three road games 0-0 and that's not the only reason to believe a fourth bore draw is on the cards this weekend: Alvaro Negredo is definitely out this weekend and possibly Freddie Kanoute too.

If Sevilla don't concede penalties - four of Mallorca's eight league goals this season have come that way - and Mallorca don't score at the wrong end - they're the only team to have already done that more than once this season - it will be a long, slow start to the weekend.

Recommended Bet: Back 0-0 Correct Score @ [10.5]

Real Madrid v Osasuna
Sunday 11:00 (Live on Sky Sports 1)
Real [1.1] Osasuna [38.0] draw [13.0]

Gonzalo Higuain has started five games for Real Madrid this season and scored in each of them. Karim Benzema was in the team against Lyon in midweek, so it's the Argentinean's turn on Sunday. Higuain is odds-on to score again on Sunday morning (note the pioneering kick-off time) but what about taking him to score the first goal? He's struck first in each of the last four games he's started, which makes [4.0] a very reasonable price - the more so because the market favourite Cristiano Ronaldo has scored in only four of his last 11 starts.

Should you oppose Ronaldo to score anytime? Maybe, but Osasuna have injury and suspension problems in defensive positions and have already conceded 14 times in five away games so far this season.

Over 4.5 Goals could be a better bet - it's [3.2], despite paying out in 11/23 Bernabeu games since Mourinho arrived, but hold off until kick-off because coach Mendilibar might be planning to park the bus.

Recommended Bet: Back Gonzalo Higuain @ [4.0] to be First Goalscorer

Athletic Bilbao v Barcelona
Sunday 19:00 (Live on Sky Sports 1)
Athletic [13.0] Barcelona [1.29] draw [6.4]

A game for the continental connoisseur: Pep Guardiola and his dream team against Marcelo Bielsa, the nightmare coach with the otherworldly tactics.

Bielsa infuriates many players with unusual, often draconian methods on the training ground, but Athletic's squad seems to have accepted him. His 'vertical football' (imagine an energetic, crisp passing game cleaved to the directness of the Crazy Gang) has launched them on to an eight-game unbeaten run. If Javi Martinez is fit to start the passing moves and the first-choice centre-backs are available, this could be quite a match.

Since winning the first ten away games of last season, Pep's team are W6-D6-L1 on the road. You might want to discount the final few games of last season, when the title was as good as won, in which case they are still drawing as often as they are winning (W5-D5-L0).

Recommended Bet: Back the draw @ [6.4]

Granada v Racing Santander
Sunday 15:00
Granada [2.18] Racing [3.8] draw [3.35]

Opta tells us that Granada and Racing Santander are the lowest-scoring sides in La Liga this season, with 11 goals in 20 games between them.

Granada have failed to score in their last two at Los Carmenes, while Racing have stayed goalless on 3/5 away trips so far.

Both teams won last week. Even so, they have only three wins between them. What better way to consolidate those recent three-point results with another point this weekend?

Racing lost most of their executive board this week, but that shouldn't affect Hector Cuper. He's missing some regular attackers - Kennedy, Lautaro Acosta - and there's no reason to suppose defence will not once again be his priority.

Recommended Bet: Back 0-0 Correct Score @ [9.8]

*Follow Tobias on Twitter: @tobiasgourlay

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