Tipping 
/ Stephen Molyneux / 19 July 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Who will you back backing in the big handicap at Ascot on Saturday?
"everything points to Western Aristocrat being hugely competitive despite his lofty rating..."
The International Handicap, the first leg of the Betfair Summer Double, looks as competitive as ever. Timeform's Stephen Molyneux has a look at some of the leading candidates, and reckons there are three to keep on side...
It's a slightly odd move to see a horse perform with such credit in a Group race then drop to a handicap, particularly a lightly-raced sort like Western Aristocrat, but that's exactly what he'll be doing should he line up in the International on Saturday.
It's unlike Jeremy Noseda to throw his charges in at the deep end, Western Aristocrat tackling the Jersey on the back of a win at Haydock off a mark of 88, but he was fully justified in doing so and arguably shaped best of the rest in finishing third behind Strong Suit, set plenty to do yet beaten little under a length. He is now fully 20 lb higher than when successful at Haydock on his second start, officially rated 108, but the runner-up that day Rhythm of Light subsequently won the Sandringham handicap at Royal Ascot (off a mark of 94) and everything points to Western Aristocrat being hugely competitive despite his lofty rating, particularly with the promise of more to come.
Timeform top-rated will be Excellent Guest, who has run two fine races to finish runner-up in similar events on his last two outings. He seemed beaten on merit in the Buckingham Palace at the Royal meeting but that wasn't the case in the Bunbury Cup at Newmarket more recently, comfortably on top of the remainder yet no match for Brae Hill who went solo against the near rail. Brae Hill was surely at an advantage in doing so, subsequent events in the July Cup going some way to proving as much, and it will be a little surprising if that one can confirm the form over Imperial Guest despite carrying just a 3 lb penalty.
Hawkeyethenoo carries top weight having already landed one of these big handicaps this season, his victory coming in the Victoria Cup over this very course and distance. That was his first start over 7f for a good while, but his fast-finishes over shorter always suggested he would prove just as good at the trip. An 8 lb rise needn't rule him out of things, but the fact that he was forced to miss Royal Ascot with a minor injury is a concern as he'll need to be right at the top of his game if he is to concede the weight, particularly if the ground became testing.
One horse who won't mind any significant easing in the ground is Striking Spirit, who ran a massive race under such conditions in the Buckingham Palace. He fared comfortably best of those in the low stalls at Ascot and it was the draw which again scuppered his chance in the Bunbury Cup last time. Striking Spirit is easily forgiven that Newmarket run and is worth another chance, looking overpriced at around the [23.0] mark.
Last year's 1-2, Castles In The Air and Noble Citizen, are both likely to line up once more. Castles In The Air finds himself below the mark off which he scored off 12 months ago yet simply doesn't seem in the same sort of form. There is always a chance he has been lined up for this but a leap of faith is clearly needed. Noble Citizen is in much better heart having won a handicap at the track last time, but that was a messy race and he invariably finds a couple too good in these heritage handicaps.
One who could run a big race at an attractive price is Pravda Street, one of several this year to benefit from a switch to Brian Ellison. He won his first two starts for the handler with the minimum of fuss and was having his third start in little over two weeks when beaten at Carlisle last time, whilst the trip was probably also further than suits him ideally. Pravda Street is a powerful traveller who should appreciate the likely strong pace and he shouldn't go unbacked at odds of around [40.0].
Recommendations
Back Western Aristocrat @ [6.6]
Back Pravda Street @ [40.0]
Back Striking Spirit @ [23.0]
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