French Open Betting 
/ Guy McCrea / 21 May 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Is Caro ready to roar at the Garros or will she crumble on clay?
"It could be worthwhile backing Wozniacki to win her quarter [2.24] of the draw."
She is the world number one but still doesn't have a Grand Slam singles title. Guy McCrea as if Caroline Wozniacki will end that wait at the French Open ...
Yes she will
Opening Up
Put simply, this is the most open women's Grand Slam in recent memory. The absence of the Williams sisters means this will be the first time that neither has been involved in a Grand Slam singles tournament since the 2003 US Open.
I could name a dozen players who have a chance - but all have questions surrounding them. Australian and US Open champion Kim Clijsters ([14.0] to win the French) hasn't played since the end of March. Another contender, Victoria Azarenka [6.4] is bang in form but you still doubt if her fitness is good enough to last seven matches at a major.
It all adds up to an amazingly open field and Caroline Wozniacki [7.0] has a terrific opportunity to take advantage.
Recent Form
Wozniacki's results on the clay are a match for anyone's heading into Roland Garros. Yes, the Dane has taken a couple of dispiriting defeats to young German starlet Julia Goerges [23.0] in Stuttgart and Madrid. She was also beaten by a resurgent Maria Sharapova [7.6] in Rome.
But these knocks aside, Wozniacki has gone pretty deep in all the WTA clay events she has played. Ultra-consistent, she also has plenty of second week experience at the Slams to draw upon.
She'll go on and on
Wozniacki often seems indefatigable, like she could run forever around the court. Thanks to countless hours of fitness work with her support team, the Dane is in superb shape. There is no one currently on the WTA with Wozniacki's ability to outlast opponents. How many really believe they can stay out with her for three hours or more and win?
Clay court duels can be long, drawn-out affairs - especially if weather conditions turn cooler and make the surface even slower. It might not be pretty to watch, but in these wars of attrition, Wozniacki is usually the last one standing at the end.
No she won't
Clogged up on clay
However much work she puts in, the feeling remains that this surface negates one of Wozniacki's greatest strengths - her movement. Unlike others, such as defending champion Francesca Schiavone [24.0] and Jelena Jankovic, the Dane is unable to naturally 'slide' on the dirt. This means that she can't get to balls in the way that she can on hardcourts.
In addition, Wozniacki's groundstrokes - especially her forehand - tend to sit up more on the clay and this gives opponents the chance to attack her more easily. Wozniacki's shots just don't get the 'zip' off the surface that they do on a hardcourt.
The Hand of History
Historically, the French Open champion has normally chosen not to play an event the week directly beforehand. The last to do so was Mary Pierce who won in 2000.
Recent titlists such as Justine Henin, Serena Williams and Svetlana Kuznetsova have all preferred to familiarise themselves with conditions on-site in Paris rather than compete for ranking points elsewhere - as Wozniacki did this week in Brussels. Although the balls used are the same, the Dane will find conditions different at Roland Garros and, as such, may be vulnerable early on.
No Father Time
When Wozniacki plays on the WTA, her father and coach Piotr will normally come on court to talk to her at least a couple of times during a match. But on-court coaching is not permitted at the Slams. I don't suggest that Piotr is wholly responsible for her many victories - but Wozniacki does clearly value those words of wisdom to help turn matches in her favour. Can she do the problem solving on her own at the majors?
Back Caro or not?
Because it is such an open field, I can understand why there is considerable backing for Wozniacki on the markets. But while she might do it, I am sceptical of her decision to play the week beforehand, rather than get to Paris early and acclimatise to conditions. I also question her ability to respond if she meets an in-form big hitter later on. It could be worthwhile backing Wozniacki to win her quarter [2.24] of the draw, as she is so consistent and knows how to reach the second week of the Slams. But for an outright win, I am not convinced.
It's day one at Roland Garros and Ben Caudell is here to select the best bets and find the value that could give you a winning start......
On the eve of the French Open, Sean Calvert selects five matches in which punters could find the first round value......
The Boz tuned in to the French Open Women's draw on Friday and he's been at the form books ever since, working out his potential first round shocks. The following are his top five to turn over the odds....
No comments:
Post a Comment