Euro 2012 
/ Tobias Gourlay / 28 March 2011 / Leave a Comment 
David Villa is now Spain's all-time leading goalscorer and his hunger for goals on a 'potato field' pitch could be crucial
"The Czech Republic scored with their only shot on goal in Granada last Friday and Lithuania will need a similar conversion rate if they are to cause an upset"
Tobias Gourlay reports on how Spain will cope with an uneven playing surface and freezing weather conditions in Vilnius, if UEFA let their Group I qualifier with Lithuania go ahead
Over 2.5 Goals has paid out in each of Spain's eight consecutive wins in away qualifiers, but is a [2.1] shot for this match. Either the market believes the world and European champions will be hampered by a pitch the Spanish are calling a 'potato field' or it is swayed by the number of low-scorers in Lithuania - 17 of the last 22 competitive matches there have not broken the 2.5-goal line. In October last year, Spain won the reverse fixture 3-1.
The Czech Republic scored with their only shot on goal in Granada last Friday and Lithuania will need a similar conversion rate if they are to cause an upset because coach Raimondas Zutautas is likely to play with two defensive banks of four and a vague hope of nicking something on a counter-attack.
Lithuania do not tend to score in defeat - successful visitors have recorded Wins to Nil in 8/9 recent away wins. The Spain Win to Nil should be on offer at evens close to kick-off and, despite Jaroslav Plasil's strike last week, would be a value bet.
There is a reasonable long shot in the Correct Score market too. Four of those nine defeats for Lithuania have been 1-0, which is on offer at [6.4] and will have extra appeal if Spanish concerns about the state of the pitch are borne out.
Top Stat: Lithuania have failed to score in 8/9 home defeats
Best Bet: Back Spain Win to Nil @ [2.0]
Recommended Bet: Back Spain to win 1-0 @ [6.4] in Correct Score market
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