Non-league 
/ Gary Boswell / 09 February 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Steve Evans has some of the biggest matches of his managerial career coming up
"What two wins for Wrexham will likely do most of course is lump the title right back in Luton’s lap. They are a short [3.0] second favourite to win from here and with three games in hand of Wimbledon themselves, any Crawley wobble gives the Hatters a serious chance to assert."
Gary Boswell talks us through the current situation in the Blue Square Premier where Crawley trade at odds-on for the title but have some absolutely vital matches coming up.
With ten weeks of the BSBP season remaining it's worth a look at the title market to see whether a bit of activity is not in order!
In particular, I'm very interested to see the Betfair price on Crawley at around [1.87] to back and [1.9] to lay as we go in to this weekend where the Red Devils have a notable showdown against top of the current form table Wrexham.
Dean Saunders' Dragons have been breathing literal fire with six straight wins and playing Crawley now twice in the next couple of weeks, can seriously put themselves in the frame for the title itself with the six point turnaround of two wins. Their price of between [16.5] and [19.0] may still be well worth a value consideration if you think they have any chance of that eventuality.
Crawley do have games in hand on everybody - a most notable five games in hand of current leaders AFC Wimbledon but the old adage of points in the bag does still hold true and the Wombles' current four point lead may not actually be as fragile as it looks. Their price of between [11.5] and [14.0] to back is also interesting especially as it seems to be fluctuating and some [21.0] has been seen at odd times this past week. It's well worth keeping an eye on market moves in the next couple of days as we lead up to the crucial game at Broadfield Stadium this weekend.
I formed the view when I watched Crawley undo Derby County on merit in the FA Cup that Steve Evans had now got his assembled assets working smoothly together and that the class on show - particularly in defence where Pablo Mills and Kyle McFadzean have become a rock solid central unit - would prove too great for others in the BSBP to contend with. With the way the table stood, I mentally gave the Red Devils the title but I've had a bit of a rethink in view of the log jam of fixtures that Crawley now face and the fact of course that a certain trip to Old Trafford is also now around to further distract them. The price is very short and although at Betfair's [1.87] you are still getting very good value if you do fancy them (because they are as low as [1.66] in some quarters) I'm actually now contemplating a lay of the [1.9] because the negative factors for them on the run in are building up. Twenty games to play in ten weeks is a punishing schedule even with the large squad rotation that Evans can effect and the FA Cup has to be factored in. In light of Burton Albion and Exeter getting FA Cup draws out of United in recent years, a replay is not beyond the bounds and whilst all the hysteria surrounds that possibility, I can see Luton,Wrexham and Wimbledon rubbing their hands with glee in the background.
A lot now hinges for me on the two upcoming games against Wrexham. Very difficult to call as match bets but there is no doubt that Dean Saunders has made his team competitive in the past two months and you have to give them a chance this weekend. They also impress me defensively now with Mark Creighton playing at his best and forming a strong alliance with old warhorse Frank Sinclair. The dangerous Andy Mangan - who Saunders plays interestingly in the left channel up front - has become weasel-like in the way he scythes through defences and that tactical use of players in creative formations has become a strength of Saunders' on this run. He is succeeding in the mind game stakes which will give Evans something tangible with which to have to deal.
What two wins for Wrexham will likely do most of course is lump the title right back in Luton's lap. They are a short [3.0] second favourite to win from here and with three games in hand of Wimbledon themselves, any Crawley wobble gives the Hatters a serious chance to assert. They have a crucial game at Kenilworth Road on Saturday against on-the-slide Fleetwood and if they win that as expected - [1.6] match betting price is worth a look - and Crawley fail to assert over Wrexham, the market could undergo some serious change - most notably the Crawley price will drift.
It's a chance worth taking for the Boz who is recommending a big Lay to Back bet on the Crawley price of [1.9]
THE BOZ's BET RECOMMENDATION:
5pts LAY on CRAWLEY TOWN at [1.9] in the BSBP outrights market with a view to trading at bigger prices on them in the coming weeks.
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